思科低预测警示美IT投入乏力

Technology stocks closed down sharply Thursday amid fears that a disappointing outlook from tech bellwether [URL=http://www.cbinews.com/inc/show_companymore.jsp?id=6 target=_blank][FONT COLOR=red]思科[/FONT][/ENDLINK] Systems Inc. (CSCO) a day earlier could point to a broad slowdown in IT spending. "There is a notion that what Cisco told us indicates a level of weakness in U.S. technology spending that people didn't anticipate or didn't necessarily expect to be as significant," said Scott Kessler, analyst at Standard & Poor's Equity Research. Thursday's losses, combined with Wednesday's fall, marked a 4.6% decline in the Nasdaq index, the market's biggest two-day loss since Sept. 3, 2002. The slide also reversed, at least momentarily, a period of tremendous gains for tech stocks. The selloff hit a wide range of technology companies, including software giant Oracle Corp., off 7.9%; consumer hardware maker Apple Inc. (AAPL), down 5.8%; and search giant Google Inc. (GOOG), down 5.3%. For its part, Cisco fell 9.5%. Overall, the Nasdaq index closed down nearly 53 points to 2696. The selloff came one day after Cisco issued disappointing guidance for its current fiscal first quarter and warned that sales to U.S corporate customers were expected to be "lumpy" as financial services, automotive and retail companies cut back on IT spending. "A fire alarm went off in the middle of the party. There could very well be a pause in the continued out-performance of the tech sector. Sentiment has been shaken, and these things don't reverse themselves very quickly," said Kessler. He added that the tech market could remain volatile for the next several weeks. Recent earnings reports from tech titans Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Intel Corp. (INTC) and [URL=http://www.cbinews.com/inc/show_companymore.jsp?id=17 target=_blank][FONT COLOR=red]EMC[/FONT][/ENDLINK] Corp. (EMC) all pointed to continued strength in the technology sector despite a looming housing recession and growing concerns about a credit crunch. Kessler said investors appeared convinced that the technology sector was a safe haven from the turmoil of the housing market and the credit crunch, but Cisco's cautious outlook indicated that clearly wasn't the case. Not everyone was convinced that Cisco's guidance pointed to a wider IT spending slowdown. Trip Chowdhry, managing director of equity research at Global Equities Research, noted that semiconductor maker Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) told analysts on Thursday that it had not seen any slowdown in corporate spending. Meanwhile, a report from research group Gartner on Thursday said North American IT spending this year was slightly higher than initially planned and would grow by 5% in 2008. "I think this (tech stock sell-off) is an overreaction to a Cisco-specific event," Chowdhry said. Tech stocks have enjoyed a good run over the past 16 months. Since the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a low July 18, 2006, the index - heavily weighted to tech stocks - rose 40% through the end of October, above the 25% gain shown by the S&P 500 during that period. Many individual tech giants registered tremendous gains over that 16-month time frame. For example, Apple shares rose 259%, Cisco gained 85%, Google was up 75%, Microsoft climbed 62%, Oracle Corp. (ORCL) spiked 51%, Intel nudged up 48%, and Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) shares multiplied six times since then. And those gains weren't limited to the Nasdaq-listed tech titans. Over that same time frame, Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) shares rose 67%, International Business Machines Corp. ([URL=http://www.cbinews.com/inc/show_companymore.jsp?id=2 target=_blank][FONT COLOR=red]IBM[/FONT][/ENDLINK]) added 56%, AT&T Inc. (T) rose 55% and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) climbed 51%. That is why the dramatic tech selloff Thursday is making some wonder if it is a temporary blip, caused by an over-reaction to Cisco's comments; some profit-taking after an impressive run; or the first signs that tech's recent resurgence is slowing down.