2007年将会有什么精彩游戏
作者： DT
责任编辑： 阚智
来源： 《电脑商情报》
时间： 2006-12-31 12:35
In my view, the game industry never gets dull. There's always something coming down the road that fans are going to appreciate. The new year will be no different in that respect.
I'm expecting the PC games industry to bounce back big time in 2007. First we get Windows Vista with its built-in game organizer and parental controls. It will also have DirectX 10, which will take graphics to the next level and enable PC games to look better than console games.
The first DX10 games are taking longer to get done. Crysis and Microsoft's Flight Simulator X patch are a little behind schedule. Nevertheless, DX 10 is going to happen in 2007 and that will give Games for Windows a much-needed boost. It will deliver Pixel Shader 3.0 and high-dynamic range lighting. New graphics chips from Nvidia and AMD-ATI will exploit DX 10, and quad-cores from Intel and AMD will mean much better artificial intelligence in games.
The last big event games for the PC were F.E.A.R. in 2005 and Half-Life 2 in 2004. In 2007, we should see games pushing the envelope such as Supreme Commander, Chris Taylor's real-time strategy game that encompasses gigantic battlefields where you can zoom in and out. Another is Alan Wake from Max Payne creator Remedy, which is putting a designer tornado into the game. World of Warcraft's first expansion pack, the Burning Crusade, will also soak up a lot of hours in the massively multiplayer game community. From EA, we'll see Command & Conquer: Tiberium Wars, and Valve is expected to have Half-Life 2: Episode Two. THQ may even launch S.T.A.L.K.E.R.
Hopefully Spore, the microbe-to-galaxy creation game from Will Wright, will debut in the second half of the year. Enemy Territory: Quake Wars should take beautiful first-person shooter online games up a level. World in Conflict is another gigantic real-time strategy game pitting Nato against the Russians during the Cold War.
"It has the potential to be one of the biggest years for the PC gaming industry," says Randy Stude, head of the game program at Intel.
Halo 2 is going to hit the PC. And Shadow Run will be the first game that exploits Microsoft's Live Anywhere technology, which will enable PC gamers to play against Xbox 360 owners.
Nvidia is cleaning up with the launch of its G80 chip for the high-end graphics chip market. I expect that ATI will show with its own entry and that the market will stay competitive. It's hard to imagine what we could do with quad-core microprocessors and SLI graphics solutions. Certainly, they will drive giant PC monitors like the one I'm testing from Voodoo PC. On those big screens, you'll see millions of pixels, with perhaps twice as many little dots on the screen as a 1080p HDTV.
According to a report by GamerMetrics, which monitors the interests of 13 million unique monthly visitors to IGN.com, Microsoft's first-half 2007 line-up is generating the most interest among gamers. The Redmond 1H07 line-up accounts for 35 percent mindshare among gamers, more than twice that of the PlayStation 3 or the Wii. GamerMetrics says it is concerned there are only nine announced third-party titles (15 including first party) for the Wii coming in the first half of 2007, but it notes that Nintendo's first-party titles have been well received. GamerMetrics says there are an equal number of titles (33 on Xbox 360 versus 34 on PS 3) coming for the PS 3 and the Xbox 360 in the first half of 07, but the mindshare for PS 3 games is low.
This year, I expect that HD will bring a new level of quality and realism to console games. I've been testing out TVs long enough and am ready to take the plunge on getting a new set. I just hope that the TV market doesn't move so fast that it makes anything I buy immediately obsolete. In the past, that's only happened in the PC industry. Now it's going to happen with TVs too. But having had a taste of HD with "Gears of War" on the Xbox 360 and "Resistance: Fall of Man" on the PlayStation 3, I truly feel like it's hard to go back to the standard definition life.
In other game trends, I expect that in-game advertising will continue to grow. Now that Microsoft has acquired Massive, I expect both Yahoo and Google to retaliate in some fashion. Those companies all see in-game advertising as a new frontier for their business models. It's going to be very important for games to open up a secondary revenue stream if the industry is ever to have a prayer of catching up with the revenues of movies and television.
We should see games created by amateurs hit the consoles, thanks to Microsoft XNA Game Studio Express Initiative. Chris Satchell, general manager of the game developer group, says it will be possible to move from hundreds of games on the console to perhaps 10,000 games per year. I am skeptical that gamers want to design games in the same way that amateur camcorder owners are turning into YouTube video directors. But surely we'll find some talented independent game developers with Microsoft's Creators Club. I don't want to discourage anyone from pursuing this dream of independence, but I don't know if the number of games is a problem in the industry.
Analysts are still expecting Microsoft to lead in console sales in 2007, largely because it is unconstrained by supply shortages. But almost everyone expects that Sony and Nintendo will start closing the gap in terms of next-generation consoles sold. The fall of 2007 is going to be the true battle for the upper hand in the console war. We'll see how games such as Killzone 2 for the PS 3 stack up against Halo 3 on the Xbox 360. The most anticipated PS 3 title in the first half of 07 is Rainbow Six: Vegas, a title already out on the Xbox 360, according to GamerMetrics. Other top PS 3 titles include Lair and Motorstorm.
God of War II on the ancient PS 2 is generating a lot of buzz. Previous generation titles will add up to 31 releases in the first half, versus 82 on the next generation and 53 on the handhelds.
The games for the 360 that were already supposed to come out should start to hit the market. Crackdown, Mass Effect, BioShock, Lost Planet: Extreme Condition, Too Human, Forza Motorsport 2, The Darkness, and others should see the light of day in 2007.
This is the year where we should see either an acceleration of games available for the strongest platform, and a dearth of games for the loser. My guess is that it's going to be pretty even in terms of third-party support, and that makes first-party games more important than ever.
Both Microsoft and Sony really ought to shoot for the best possible graphics in an epic game, while Nintendo has to show that the Wii controller is just a novelty. I think that Nintendo really ought to pursue more big games like the Zelda title. Nintendo should roll out more and more epic and zany titles to show that it can keep up with the big guys. Its top title coming is Metroid Prime 3: Corruption. Others include Mario Party 8, Wario Ware: Smooth Moves, Cooking Mama: Cook Off, and Wii Play.
Microsoft should continue to exploit its leadership in Xbox Live and online games. That means it should step up with games that allow big multiplayer frays as well as massively multiplayer online games. Unfortunately for Microsoft, it has cut many games in this category and Sony has picked them up (such as Vanguard: Saga of Heroes). Sony could very well come from behind in online games by coming up with the equivalent of World of Warcraft for consoles. If it did so, that would be a major embarrassment for Microsoft and could eliminate some of Microsoft's advantages.
Microsoft should also fight back by making "Live Anywhere" into a reality. That means playing games where PC gamers can square off against Xbox 360 gamers and even use their cell phones as part of the game. We'll see whether the rhetoric here matches the reality.
For all of the excitement in online games for consoles, I'm expecting a lot from casual online games at web sites such as www.bigfishgames.com, www.shockwave.com, www.gametap.com, www.realarcade.com, www.pogo.com, www.aol.com, www.yahoogames.com, www.msn.com, www.wildtangent.com and many others. It remains to be seen if subscription models such as GameTap or free, ad-based models will succeed. By extension, games on cell phones should also continue to gather steam. But in either case, I have no clue who is going to take the lead.
On the portable front, Nintendo's DS has more mindshare than the PSP despite fewer titles. Only 14 titles are being released on the DS in the first half, versus 39 for the PSP. But the lead title is "The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass" from Nintendo. The top anticipated title on the PSP is The Elder Scrolls Travels: Oblivion. I don't know if Microsoft will try to break into portable games.
I expect that Electronic Arts will have some make-or-break moments in 2007 as its strategy of making original content games comes to a head. Crysis, Army of Two, Spore and others should help the company shed its reputation as a maker of formulaic games. I think that EA has teamed up with some talented development houses and invested in a lot of great talent. With more than 5,500 game developers on staff, it has a development staff that is roughly equal to all three console makers combined. Beyond sports and its entertainment franchise titles, EA needs to prove that it can come up with the blockbusters of innovation in games. If you look at Ubisoft, they've had a much better track record on that front. If EA can execute on its original IP strategy, they may become a huge juggernaut in the industry beyond what they already are. I don't relish the idea of getting all of my games from EA.
But if they do what they say they will do, all of us are going to be happy gamers. Happy New Year everyone.
I'm expecting the PC games industry to bounce back big time in 2007. First we get Windows Vista with its built-in game organizer and parental controls. It will also have DirectX 10, which will take graphics to the next level and enable PC games to look better than console games.
The first DX10 games are taking longer to get done. Crysis and Microsoft's Flight Simulator X patch are a little behind schedule. Nevertheless, DX 10 is going to happen in 2007 and that will give Games for Windows a much-needed boost. It will deliver Pixel Shader 3.0 and high-dynamic range lighting. New graphics chips from Nvidia and AMD-ATI will exploit DX 10, and quad-cores from Intel and AMD will mean much better artificial intelligence in games.
The last big event games for the PC were F.E.A.R. in 2005 and Half-Life 2 in 2004. In 2007, we should see games pushing the envelope such as Supreme Commander, Chris Taylor's real-time strategy game that encompasses gigantic battlefields where you can zoom in and out. Another is Alan Wake from Max Payne creator Remedy, which is putting a designer tornado into the game. World of Warcraft's first expansion pack, the Burning Crusade, will also soak up a lot of hours in the massively multiplayer game community. From EA, we'll see Command & Conquer: Tiberium Wars, and Valve is expected to have Half-Life 2: Episode Two. THQ may even launch S.T.A.L.K.E.R.
Hopefully Spore, the microbe-to-galaxy creation game from Will Wright, will debut in the second half of the year. Enemy Territory: Quake Wars should take beautiful first-person shooter online games up a level. World in Conflict is another gigantic real-time strategy game pitting Nato against the Russians during the Cold War.
"It has the potential to be one of the biggest years for the PC gaming industry," says Randy Stude, head of the game program at Intel.
Halo 2 is going to hit the PC. And Shadow Run will be the first game that exploits Microsoft's Live Anywhere technology, which will enable PC gamers to play against Xbox 360 owners.
Nvidia is cleaning up with the launch of its G80 chip for the high-end graphics chip market. I expect that ATI will show with its own entry and that the market will stay competitive. It's hard to imagine what we could do with quad-core microprocessors and SLI graphics solutions. Certainly, they will drive giant PC monitors like the one I'm testing from Voodoo PC. On those big screens, you'll see millions of pixels, with perhaps twice as many little dots on the screen as a 1080p HDTV.
According to a report by GamerMetrics, which monitors the interests of 13 million unique monthly visitors to IGN.com, Microsoft's first-half 2007 line-up is generating the most interest among gamers. The Redmond 1H07 line-up accounts for 35 percent mindshare among gamers, more than twice that of the PlayStation 3 or the Wii. GamerMetrics says it is concerned there are only nine announced third-party titles (15 including first party) for the Wii coming in the first half of 2007, but it notes that Nintendo's first-party titles have been well received. GamerMetrics says there are an equal number of titles (33 on Xbox 360 versus 34 on PS 3) coming for the PS 3 and the Xbox 360 in the first half of 07, but the mindshare for PS 3 games is low.
This year, I expect that HD will bring a new level of quality and realism to console games. I've been testing out TVs long enough and am ready to take the plunge on getting a new set. I just hope that the TV market doesn't move so fast that it makes anything I buy immediately obsolete. In the past, that's only happened in the PC industry. Now it's going to happen with TVs too. But having had a taste of HD with "Gears of War" on the Xbox 360 and "Resistance: Fall of Man" on the PlayStation 3, I truly feel like it's hard to go back to the standard definition life.
In other game trends, I expect that in-game advertising will continue to grow. Now that Microsoft has acquired Massive, I expect both Yahoo and Google to retaliate in some fashion. Those companies all see in-game advertising as a new frontier for their business models. It's going to be very important for games to open up a secondary revenue stream if the industry is ever to have a prayer of catching up with the revenues of movies and television.
We should see games created by amateurs hit the consoles, thanks to Microsoft XNA Game Studio Express Initiative. Chris Satchell, general manager of the game developer group, says it will be possible to move from hundreds of games on the console to perhaps 10,000 games per year. I am skeptical that gamers want to design games in the same way that amateur camcorder owners are turning into YouTube video directors. But surely we'll find some talented independent game developers with Microsoft's Creators Club. I don't want to discourage anyone from pursuing this dream of independence, but I don't know if the number of games is a problem in the industry.
Analysts are still expecting Microsoft to lead in console sales in 2007, largely because it is unconstrained by supply shortages. But almost everyone expects that Sony and Nintendo will start closing the gap in terms of next-generation consoles sold. The fall of 2007 is going to be the true battle for the upper hand in the console war. We'll see how games such as Killzone 2 for the PS 3 stack up against Halo 3 on the Xbox 360. The most anticipated PS 3 title in the first half of 07 is Rainbow Six: Vegas, a title already out on the Xbox 360, according to GamerMetrics. Other top PS 3 titles include Lair and Motorstorm.
God of War II on the ancient PS 2 is generating a lot of buzz. Previous generation titles will add up to 31 releases in the first half, versus 82 on the next generation and 53 on the handhelds.
The games for the 360 that were already supposed to come out should start to hit the market. Crackdown, Mass Effect, BioShock, Lost Planet: Extreme Condition, Too Human, Forza Motorsport 2, The Darkness, and others should see the light of day in 2007.
This is the year where we should see either an acceleration of games available for the strongest platform, and a dearth of games for the loser. My guess is that it's going to be pretty even in terms of third-party support, and that makes first-party games more important than ever.
Both Microsoft and Sony really ought to shoot for the best possible graphics in an epic game, while Nintendo has to show that the Wii controller is just a novelty. I think that Nintendo really ought to pursue more big games like the Zelda title. Nintendo should roll out more and more epic and zany titles to show that it can keep up with the big guys. Its top title coming is Metroid Prime 3: Corruption. Others include Mario Party 8, Wario Ware: Smooth Moves, Cooking Mama: Cook Off, and Wii Play.
Microsoft should continue to exploit its leadership in Xbox Live and online games. That means it should step up with games that allow big multiplayer frays as well as massively multiplayer online games. Unfortunately for Microsoft, it has cut many games in this category and Sony has picked them up (such as Vanguard: Saga of Heroes). Sony could very well come from behind in online games by coming up with the equivalent of World of Warcraft for consoles. If it did so, that would be a major embarrassment for Microsoft and could eliminate some of Microsoft's advantages.
Microsoft should also fight back by making "Live Anywhere" into a reality. That means playing games where PC gamers can square off against Xbox 360 gamers and even use their cell phones as part of the game. We'll see whether the rhetoric here matches the reality.
For all of the excitement in online games for consoles, I'm expecting a lot from casual online games at web sites such as www.bigfishgames.com, www.shockwave.com, www.gametap.com, www.realarcade.com, www.pogo.com, www.aol.com, www.yahoogames.com, www.msn.com, www.wildtangent.com and many others. It remains to be seen if subscription models such as GameTap or free, ad-based models will succeed. By extension, games on cell phones should also continue to gather steam. But in either case, I have no clue who is going to take the lead.
On the portable front, Nintendo's DS has more mindshare than the PSP despite fewer titles. Only 14 titles are being released on the DS in the first half, versus 39 for the PSP. But the lead title is "The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass" from Nintendo. The top anticipated title on the PSP is The Elder Scrolls Travels: Oblivion. I don't know if Microsoft will try to break into portable games.
I expect that Electronic Arts will have some make-or-break moments in 2007 as its strategy of making original content games comes to a head. Crysis, Army of Two, Spore and others should help the company shed its reputation as a maker of formulaic games. I think that EA has teamed up with some talented development houses and invested in a lot of great talent. With more than 5,500 game developers on staff, it has a development staff that is roughly equal to all three console makers combined. Beyond sports and its entertainment franchise titles, EA needs to prove that it can come up with the blockbusters of innovation in games. If you look at Ubisoft, they've had a much better track record on that front. If EA can execute on its original IP strategy, they may become a huge juggernaut in the industry beyond what they already are. I don't relish the idea of getting all of my games from EA.
But if they do what they say they will do, all of us are going to be happy gamers. Happy New Year everyone.
