美生产率新高9.2%
作者：
西岸
责任编辑：阚智
来源：
《电脑商情报》
时间：2003-12-04 01:11
关键字：
生产率
Productivity growth at U.S. companies hit a 20-year high in the third quarter.
Nonfarm business productivity, which measures the amount an employee produces per hour, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.4% from July through September, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
That was the strongest showing since the second quarter of 1983 -- following the 1981-82 recession -- when productivity grew at a blistering 9.7% pace. It also topped the government's initial estimate of 8.1%, and the second quarter's productivity rate of 7%.
Economists had expected an increase of 9.2% in the third quarter, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC.
"This is the typical post-recession acceleration and greatly overstates underlying productivity growth," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics. "Nevertheless, there has been a fundamental shift to stronger productivity gains since the mid-1990's."
Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said productivity "is going to be extremely important for the sustainability of the recovery." A continued rise in productivity means "corporate profitability will remain strong, and that will allow businesses to ramp up hiring and investment spending while keeping costs contained." Under the circumstances, he said, the Federal Reserve isn't likely to raise interest rates before November 2004.
But the gains weren't entirely due to employers' squeezing more effort out of reduced work forces: workers' hours expanded at the fastest pace in three years.
The revision partly reflected changes in the government's estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said last month that GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.2%, a full percentage point above the initial estimate. As a result, the Labor Department revised its estimate of nonfarm business output to 10.3% from 8.8% initially. Workers' hours increased by 0.8%, up from the initial estimate of 0.7%.
Separately, the service sector continued to expand for the eighth straight month in November. However, the pace of growth slowed from the previous month.
The Institute for Supply Management reported its nonmanufacturing index slipped to 60.1 last month from 64.7 in October. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below suggest contraction. The gauge has stayed above 50 since March.
The employment component of the ISM index, on the rise for a second straight month, hit its highest level since March 2000. Prices paid increased for a sixth straight month. And inventories rose for the first time in five months. The backlog of orders, as well as new orders, declined.
Respondents to the ISM's survey were generally more optimistic. Some specific comments included: "business volume continues to improve at a healthy pace," and "Business is still strong and the economy is improving."
Economists said that the general slowing in the service-sector report, outside of hiring, shouldn't be a cause for worry. "Given the noise that the nonmanufacturing ISM series is known for, its fairly sharp drop in November should not be viewed with real concern," said Banc One Capital Markets economist Anthony Karydakis, in Chicago. "However, it may be the first hint at a cooling of the torrid pace of growth experienced in the last few months," he added.
The service-sector report follows a several-week streak of decidedly robust economic statistics, covering everything from total economic output, hiring, through to corporate profits and business investment. The totality of the recent numbers has driven forecasters to increase their optimism over the economic outlook, even as they argue that it will still be some time before the Fed reacts to the news with higher interest rates.
Productivity gains, over the long run, boost corporate profits, allowing businesses to raise wages without fanning inflation, or a general rise in prices. But in the past few years, the increasing efficiency of U.S. workers has proved to be a hazard to their own job security: Employers found they could meet rising demand with reduced work forces.
Most economists say the economy has now started to grow at a pace that will force employers to accelerate hiring. Economic growth in the third quarter, for example, was the fastest in 20 years. Most forecasters say the government is likely to say that the nation's payrolls grew by 150,000 nonfarm jobs in November, when it reports on the labor market on Friday.
Unit labor costs fell 5.8%, the biggest decline in 20 years. Adjusted for inflation, workers' average hourly compensation rose 0.7%, down from a 3% increase in the second quarter.
Durable-goods manufacturers saw the biggest gain in productivity -- at 14.8%, it is the largest increase in 32 years. The overall manufacturing sector saw a productivity gain of 9%, up from a 2.8% rate in the second quarter.
Productivity gains were also impressive in the nonfinancial corporate sector at 9.2%, the biggest increase in two years.
Nonfarm business productivity, which measures the amount an employee produces per hour, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.4% from July through September, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
That was the strongest showing since the second quarter of 1983 -- following the 1981-82 recession -- when productivity grew at a blistering 9.7% pace. It also topped the government's initial estimate of 8.1%, and the second quarter's productivity rate of 7%.
Economists had expected an increase of 9.2% in the third quarter, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC.
"This is the typical post-recession acceleration and greatly overstates underlying productivity growth," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics. "Nevertheless, there has been a fundamental shift to stronger productivity gains since the mid-1990's."
Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said productivity "is going to be extremely important for the sustainability of the recovery." A continued rise in productivity means "corporate profitability will remain strong, and that will allow businesses to ramp up hiring and investment spending while keeping costs contained." Under the circumstances, he said, the Federal Reserve isn't likely to raise interest rates before November 2004.
But the gains weren't entirely due to employers' squeezing more effort out of reduced work forces: workers' hours expanded at the fastest pace in three years.
The revision partly reflected changes in the government's estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said last month that GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.2%, a full percentage point above the initial estimate. As a result, the Labor Department revised its estimate of nonfarm business output to 10.3% from 8.8% initially. Workers' hours increased by 0.8%, up from the initial estimate of 0.7%.
Separately, the service sector continued to expand for the eighth straight month in November. However, the pace of growth slowed from the previous month.
The Institute for Supply Management reported its nonmanufacturing index slipped to 60.1 last month from 64.7 in October. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below suggest contraction. The gauge has stayed above 50 since March.
The employment component of the ISM index, on the rise for a second straight month, hit its highest level since March 2000. Prices paid increased for a sixth straight month. And inventories rose for the first time in five months. The backlog of orders, as well as new orders, declined.
Respondents to the ISM's survey were generally more optimistic. Some specific comments included: "business volume continues to improve at a healthy pace," and "Business is still strong and the economy is improving."
Economists said that the general slowing in the service-sector report, outside of hiring, shouldn't be a cause for worry. "Given the noise that the nonmanufacturing ISM series is known for, its fairly sharp drop in November should not be viewed with real concern," said Banc One Capital Markets economist Anthony Karydakis, in Chicago. "However, it may be the first hint at a cooling of the torrid pace of growth experienced in the last few months," he added.
The service-sector report follows a several-week streak of decidedly robust economic statistics, covering everything from total economic output, hiring, through to corporate profits and business investment. The totality of the recent numbers has driven forecasters to increase their optimism over the economic outlook, even as they argue that it will still be some time before the Fed reacts to the news with higher interest rates.
Productivity gains, over the long run, boost corporate profits, allowing businesses to raise wages without fanning inflation, or a general rise in prices. But in the past few years, the increasing efficiency of U.S. workers has proved to be a hazard to their own job security: Employers found they could meet rising demand with reduced work forces.
Most economists say the economy has now started to grow at a pace that will force employers to accelerate hiring. Economic growth in the third quarter, for example, was the fastest in 20 years. Most forecasters say the government is likely to say that the nation's payrolls grew by 150,000 nonfarm jobs in November, when it reports on the labor market on Friday.
Unit labor costs fell 5.8%, the biggest decline in 20 years. Adjusted for inflation, workers' average hourly compensation rose 0.7%, down from a 3% increase in the second quarter.
Durable-goods manufacturers saw the biggest gain in productivity -- at 14.8%, it is the largest increase in 32 years. The overall manufacturing sector saw a productivity gain of 9%, up from a 2.8% rate in the second quarter.
Productivity gains were also impressive in the nonfinancial corporate sector at 9.2%, the biggest increase in two years.
