内存DDR2价格滑坡将Q3探底

Beginning from Jan07, mainstream DRAM DDR2 chip prices began to spiral downwards. Up until now, although prices have rebounded sometimes, they have occurred only three times, ranging merely between 10%-15%, and lasting for less than 10 days. According to DRAMeXchange's database, the average price of the DDR 2 tumbled 20% QoQ in 1Q07, and in 2Q07, it is expected to decline a whopping 50% QoQ. When the mainstream DDR2 512Mb 667MHz chips slipped below USD 2, it attracted many buyers to take advantage of the inexpensive chips in stocking up on their inventory. Nevertheless, amid the continuing growth in supply and the hot season not arriving yet, the increased chip buying was not sufficient enough in keeping up the DRAM prices. The market outlook of the DRAM industry has started to look gloomier. With prices already below the manufacturing costs, major DRAM makers have expressed an unwillingness to cut their prices further in clearing out their excess inventory. Current market observations show the DDR2 chip price possibly bottoming out. If this occurs, it should drive up the chip demand, and spur a rebound in the spot price.

Last week, DDR2 eTT chips leapt 12.5%, hitting a weekly high of USD 1.65. On May 23rd, it experienced a daily price jump reaching 10%. This helped increase the branded chip price 2.3% to USD 1.75, resulting in much stronger market transactions in the DRAM spot market. Despite the fact that Taiwan DRAM makers posted a gross profit of nearly 50% in 4Q06, and 30% in 1Q07, DRAMeXchange believes the persisting DRAM price declines in May will cause them to post a loss in 2Q07.

Although DRAM makers must still ship their chips in May, they indicated no additional price cuts would be made, due to the continuing losses. Prices have thus started to increase for last week. Yet, the end market demand is not expected to pick up in May and June, and PC shipments have been performing worse than expected in May, in the wake of a weak seasonality. Furthermore, PC OEMs, major spot market buyers, and module houses still have inventory levels lasting for more than a month. DRAMeXchange believes that by only relying on buyers in purchasing cheaper chips, the DRAM price increase will be limited at least before June.

With prices already dangerously low, Hynix has already started to switch some of its DRAM production to NAND Flash instead. It is expected that Hynix's output in June will experience a slight decline, and in July, DDR2 output will decrease by 10%-20%. This has prompted the market to hold a more optimistic view for a DDR2 price increase in 3Q07. As DRAM makers are unwilling to yield to more price cuts, and with spot prices increasing, contract prices in June stand a strong chance of stabilizing.