SIA下调全球芯片成长率
作者：
责任编辑：
阚智
来源：
《电脑商情报》
时间：2003-06-12 05:48
关键字：
芯片 全球 增长率
The Semiconductor Industry Association on Wednesday cut its forecast for growth in global sales of semiconductors in 2003 by nearly half, citing anemic spending on information technology, the SARS (news - web sites) epidemic and the war in Iraq , .
Sales of chips used in everything from computers to microwave ovens to automobiles will rise 10.1 percent to $154.9 billion this year, the SIA said in its mid-year forecast. That was down sharply from its November 2002 forecast for an increase of 19.8 percent.
"The SIA forecast reflects the new realities of the semiconductor industry of an 8-10 percent" growth rate, George Scalise, the trade association's president, said in a statement.
From 2003 to 2006, the compound annual growth rate of the industry is expected to be 9.8 percent, toward the high end of the 8 to 10 percent long-term range the SIA issued in November. It said it would be 2006 before annual sales rose back above the level they achieved in 2000.
Although the forecast for 2003 has been nearly halved, it does still call for growth as the industry continues to rebound from its worst-ever decline in 2001, when global chip sales fell 34 percent to $139 billion, according to the SIA.
The forecast comes a day after Texas Instruments Inc.,(NYSE:TXN - news) the largest maker of chips for cellular telephones, warned sales and earnings would be lower than expected in the current quarter. It blamed the SARS outbreak that hurt chip sales in Asia and a bulge of slow-moving cell-phone chip inventories in Asia.
The SIA forecast that chip sales next year will rise 16.8 percent to $180.9 billion, followed by a 5.8 percent increase to $191.5 billion in 2005. It predicted that a 7.0 percent rise to $204.9 billion in 2006 would push the industry's yearly sales slightly past its highest-ever level in 2000.
The SIA forecast in November that global sales of semiconductors would increase 22 percent to $206 billion in 2004 and then remain flat in 2005.
The trend of chip manufacturing and consumption moving from the Americas to Asia Pacific, driven by lower costs overseas, will continue, Scalise said.
"Semiconductor consumption is forecast to continue a migration from the Americas to Asia Pacific, reflecting the outsourcing of electronic equipment manufacturing, including component sourcing and design services to the region," Scalise said in the statement.
Chip sales in the Americas are forecast to fall 2.1 percent to $30.6 billion this year, then rise 15.7 percent to $35.4 billion in 2004, remain nearly flat in 2005 and then increase 8.8 percent to $38.2 billion in 2006.
In Europe, the SIA forecasts that sales will rise 11.8 percent to $31.1 billion this year, rise 13.6 percent to $35.3 billion 2004, another increase of 4.7 percent to $36.9 billion in 2005, and increase again by 6.1 percent to $39.2 billion in 2006.
In Japan, the SIA forecasts growth in chip sales of 17.5 percent to $35.8 billion this year, rise 14.1 percent to $41.9 billion next year, increase 6.5 percent to $43.5 billion in 2005, and again rise 4.9 percent in 2006 to $45.6 billion.
In Asia Pacific, sales of chips will rise the fastest, the SIA forecast. That market is expected to grow by 12.1 percent to $57.3 billion this year, increase 20.9 percent to $69.3 billion in 2004, rise 9.4 percent in 2005 to $75.8 billion, and increase again in 2006 by 7.9 percent to $81.8 billion.
Sales of chips used in everything from computers to microwave ovens to automobiles will rise 10.1 percent to $154.9 billion this year, the SIA said in its mid-year forecast. That was down sharply from its November 2002 forecast for an increase of 19.8 percent.
"The SIA forecast reflects the new realities of the semiconductor industry of an 8-10 percent" growth rate, George Scalise, the trade association's president, said in a statement.
From 2003 to 2006, the compound annual growth rate of the industry is expected to be 9.8 percent, toward the high end of the 8 to 10 percent long-term range the SIA issued in November. It said it would be 2006 before annual sales rose back above the level they achieved in 2000.
Although the forecast for 2003 has been nearly halved, it does still call for growth as the industry continues to rebound from its worst-ever decline in 2001, when global chip sales fell 34 percent to $139 billion, according to the SIA.
The forecast comes a day after Texas Instruments Inc.,(NYSE:TXN - news) the largest maker of chips for cellular telephones, warned sales and earnings would be lower than expected in the current quarter. It blamed the SARS outbreak that hurt chip sales in Asia and a bulge of slow-moving cell-phone chip inventories in Asia.
The SIA forecast that chip sales next year will rise 16.8 percent to $180.9 billion, followed by a 5.8 percent increase to $191.5 billion in 2005. It predicted that a 7.0 percent rise to $204.9 billion in 2006 would push the industry's yearly sales slightly past its highest-ever level in 2000.
The SIA forecast in November that global sales of semiconductors would increase 22 percent to $206 billion in 2004 and then remain flat in 2005.
The trend of chip manufacturing and consumption moving from the Americas to Asia Pacific, driven by lower costs overseas, will continue, Scalise said.
"Semiconductor consumption is forecast to continue a migration from the Americas to Asia Pacific, reflecting the outsourcing of electronic equipment manufacturing, including component sourcing and design services to the region," Scalise said in the statement.
Chip sales in the Americas are forecast to fall 2.1 percent to $30.6 billion this year, then rise 15.7 percent to $35.4 billion in 2004, remain nearly flat in 2005 and then increase 8.8 percent to $38.2 billion in 2006.
In Europe, the SIA forecasts that sales will rise 11.8 percent to $31.1 billion this year, rise 13.6 percent to $35.3 billion 2004, another increase of 4.7 percent to $36.9 billion in 2005, and increase again by 6.1 percent to $39.2 billion in 2006.
In Japan, the SIA forecasts growth in chip sales of 17.5 percent to $35.8 billion this year, rise 14.1 percent to $41.9 billion next year, increase 6.5 percent to $43.5 billion in 2005, and again rise 4.9 percent in 2006 to $45.6 billion.
In Asia Pacific, sales of chips will rise the fastest, the SIA forecast. That market is expected to grow by 12.1 percent to $57.3 billion this year, increase 20.9 percent to $69.3 billion in 2004, rise 9.4 percent in 2005 to $75.8 billion, and increase again in 2006 by 7.9 percent to $81.8 billion.
